OXON HILL, Md. — Trips to Mar-a-Lago. Glowing speeches. Front-row seats at major events.
Former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign event Monday in Davenport, Iowa.
The first Republican presidential primaries are nearly a year away and the candidate field is unsettled. But already, a shadow contest of another sort is underway with several Republicans openly jockeying to position themselves as potential running mates to Donald Trump, the early front-runner for the nomination.
“A lot of people are right now auditioning,” Trump boasted to supporters in Florida last month.
The mere mention of a running mate this early in the process is a departure from the traditional timeline of presidential primaries, where candidates typically spend the opening months of a campaign introducing themselves to voters and sharing their visions for the country. But as a former president, Trump needs no introduction and is eager to project an air of inevitability around his campaign, particularly as attention builds around Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is widely seen as his toughest potential GOP rival.
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Trump campaign officials insist that the vice presidential search is not something they have been actively discussing.
“We appreciate all support for President Trump, but the clear focus is on making sure that he wins the Republican nomination and is well-positioned to win the general election in 2024,” said Jason Miller, a longtime Trump adviser.
That, however, hasn't stopped some could-be candidates from taking full advantage of opportunities to be in close proximity to Trump, at his club and at events. The dynamic was on full display earlier this month at the Conservative Political Action Conference, where a trio of women who have been mentioned as possible contenders sat in the audience to cheer Trump's headline speech.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor-Greene, R-Ga., speaks on Capitol Hill on Feb. 1 in Washington.
They were Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, Elise Stefanik of New York and Kari Lake, the news anchor-turned-failed-Arizona gubernatorial candidate who ended her remarks at a keynote event dinner by kissing a portrait of Trump that was placed on stage.
While Trump, according to people who have spoken to him, is in no rush to make a decision and understands that he has to let the nomination process play out, he has nonetheless talked through possible choices since well before he formally announced his candidacy last fall. In those conversations, he has indicated his interest in selecting a woman this time around.
But allies say Trump is looking, first and foremost, for someone who will be unabashedly loyal after feeling burned by former Vice President Mike Pence for refusing to overturn the results of the 2020 election.
In 2016, running as a celebrity businessman with no experience in politics, Trump chose a person who was, in many ways, his total opposite, picking the Indiana governor and former congressman who could bolster his standing with conservatives and the religious right.
Trump, this time, is looking for someone more like himself, said Michael Caputo, a longtime friend and adviser who believes Stefanik would be Trump’s best choice.
“I think the president learned a lot from his experience with Pence," he said. “I think this time Trump’s going to be looking for someone cut from the same cloth he is, not from a different, complementary cloth.”
While Trump is looking for someone with star power, he has also signaled that he is reluctant to choose someone who might overshadow him in the race.
Kari Lake speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference on March 4 at National Harbor in Oxon Hill, Md.
Among those who are seen as most eager for the job is Lake, who is popular with Trump's MAGA base and won — and then promoted — a CPAC straw poll that asked audience members whom they would like to see as the Republican vice presidential nominee. She is seen as unequivocally loyal to the former president, but detractors note she lost her only race and continues to dispute the results, which would draw attention to Trump's own election failures and intensify criticism that he is too focused on the past.
She said in a statement that she is “100% dedicated to serving as Arizona Governor" — even though Democrat Katie Hobbs, who defeated Lake, now holds the job — and “will also work to make sure President Trump gets back in the White House ASAP. Anything outside of those two goals is nothing but a distraction.”
A person close to Lake said that she has had no formal discussions about the role is currently gearing up for a potential run for the Senate. But the person, who, like others, insisted on anonymity to discuss private conversations, also said Lake is unapologetically pro-Trump and would likely do anything he asked.
Greene, the flame-throwing congresswoman who recently proposed a “national divorce” between red and blue states, is also seen as eager for the role. She was a constant presence at Trump's midterm rallies, often speaking during the pre-show program, and has been a frequent visitor to Florida, including sharing dinner with Lake at a local restaurant, Rocco’s Tacos, on Valentine’s Day.
“She sees herself on the short list for Trump’s VP. Paraphrasing Cokie Roberts, when MTG looks in the mirror she sees a potential president smiling back,” Steve Bannon, Trump's former chief strategist who frequently hosts Greene on his podcast, told NBC, referring to the late political reporter.
Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., speaks during the House Select Committee on Intelligence annual open hearing on world wide threats at the Capitol on March 9 in Washington.
When asked about her vice presidential ambitions recently, Greene told reporters, “That's up to President Trump who he chooses.”
Stefanik is also frequently mentioned as a likely contender, but has taken what allies describe as a more subtle approach. She endorsed Trump before he even announced he was running, and has become one of his chief defenders on the Hill. During CPAC, Stefanik used her speech to call for Trump's reelection and introduced him at a private event organized by his super PAC. Trump, in turn, praised her as a “rocket ship.”
The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2024. A first look at the Senate battleground.
1. West Virginia
1. West Virginia
Incumbent: Democrat Joe Manchin
West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin has spent much of the past two years at the center of the action in the Democratic-controlled Senate, blocking some of Biden's more ambitious agenda items. He's also leaving Democrats in suspense when it comes to his 2024 plans, so far not saying whether he will seek a third full term.
If he runs, Manchin would start the cycle as the most endangered Democratic incumbent, representing a state that backed Trump by 39 points in 2020 -- down slightly from his 42-point winning margin four years earlier. While Manchin was able to win reelection by 3 points in 2018, his ability to convince Republicans to split their tickets would be put to the test next year. The last time Manchin was on the ballot in a presidential year, he won by 24 points while Republican Mitt Romney was carrying West Virginia by more than 26 points. But that was in 2012, and political polarization has only intensified since then.
Manchin enters the cycle with a sizable $9.5 million war chest, though that's unlikely to dissuade Republicans eager to challenge him. GOP Rep. Alex Mooney launched his Senate bid in November. Other Republicans eyeing the race include Gov. Jim Justice, who is term-limited, and state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, who lost to Manchin in 2018.
2. Montana
2. Montana
Incumbent: Democrat Jon Tester
Montana Sen. Jon Tester has been a top target of Republicans ever since he was first elected in 2006, when he narrowly defeated GOP Sen. Conrad Burns in a favorable Democratic midterm environment. A self-described "seven-fingered dirt farmer" with a distinctive flat top haircut, Tester cuts a unique profile for a Democrat -- one that has proved difficult for Republicans to pierce in previous elections.
But the GOP is eager to take another shot at unseating the three-term incumbent in a state that Trump carried by more than 16 points in 2020. Much of the talk about potential GOP challengers has focused on the state's two House members, Matt Rosendale and Ryan Zinke. Tester beat Rosendale by more than 3 points in 2018, when the Democrat hammered his GOP rival over his Maryland roots. Zinke, a former Interior secretary under Trump, won a newly created House seat in November by 3 points, underperforming Trump's 7-point spread in a district Montana gained in reapportionment following the 2020 census.
While he hasn't yet announced whether he will seek reelection, Tester enters the cycle sitting on nearly $3 million in cash on hand.
3. Ohio
3. Ohio
Incumbent: Democrat Sherrod Brown
Unlike Manchin and Tester, three-term Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown has already announced he will run for reelection in 2024. Brown is the only Democrat to win a nonjudicial statewide race in Ohio over the past decade, demonstrating a measure of political resiliency in a GOP-trending state. Trump carried Ohio by 8 points in both 2020 and 2016. Yet Brown still managed to notch a nearly 7-point win in 2018, albeit against a relatively weak GOP challenger in then-Rep. Jim Renacci.
Just as they did in the 2022 race for the state's other Senate seat, Republicans could face a crowded field of candidates. State Sen. Matt Dolan, whose family owns the Cleveland Guardians baseball team, is running again after placing third in the GOP Senate primary last year. Other potential hopefuls include Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, state Attorney General Dave Yost, Rep. Warren Davidson and businessman Bernie Moreno, who dropped out of the 2022 Senate primary.
Brown enters the cycle with $3.4 million in his campaign coffers as he gears up for what could be a bruising and expensive battle in the Buckeye State.
4. Arizona
4. Arizona
Incumbent: Independent Kyrsten Sinema
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema hasn't yet said whether she's running for reelection, but her decision to leave the Democratic Party late last year and become an independent has scrambled this race in a state where Democrats have won three Senate elections in the last three cycles. (Biden also narrowly carried the state in 2020.)
Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego has already entered the race, hoping to tap into progressives' frustration with the moderate first-term senator for being an obstacle to parts of Biden's agenda in the closely divided chamber. Sinema continues to caucus with her former party in the narrowly divided Senate, so national Democrats face a delicate decision if she runs for a second term. While Sinema and Gallego could split votes and help the eventual GOP nominee, Democrats, for now, are happy to deflect to potential messiness on the GOP side.
Republicans considering Senate bids include election deniers such as failed 2020 nominees Blake Masters, who lost a bid for Senate, and Kari Lake, who says last fall's gubernatorial election was stolen from her. Lake met with NRSC officials earlier this month, CNN reported, but she's also holding events in Iowa, which would suggest interest in a different federal office. If there's been a lesson for the Arizona GOP over the last few years here, it's that catering to the more extreme Trump base works well in the state's late-summer primary but alienates voters in the general election. Freshman Rep. Juan Ciscomani, seen as a potential candidate, was tapped to deliver the GOP rebuttal in Spanish to Biden's State of the Union address.
5. Nevada
5. Nevada
Incumbent: Democrat Jacky Rosen
Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is running for reelection in a state that Biden carried by about 2 points in 2020 and that will again be competitive presidential turf in 2024. That means Rosen can expect Republicans to tie her to the national Democratic Party if she doesn't effectively carve out her own brand.
First elected to the House in 2016 before running successfully for the Senate two years later, Rosen began 2023 with more than $4.4 million in the bank, which should give her a strong fundraising head start on would-be challengers. Republicans came close to knocking off the Silver State's other Democratic senator, Catherine Cortez Masto, last year in a difficult environment for Democrats, who lost the governor's mansion but held on to several down-ballot offices.
Republicans Adam Laxalt, the former state attorney general who lost to Cortez Masto last fall, and Purple Heart recipient Sam Brown, an Army veteran who lost to Laxalt in the 2022 Senate primary, could run again.
6. Wisconsin
6. Wisconsin
Incumbent: Democrat Tammy Baldwin
Few states have such politically divergent senators as Wisconsin, where progressive Democrat Tammy Baldwin is up for a third term in 2024 and conservative Republican Ron Johnson won reelection last fall by 1 point. Baldwin, the first out LGBTQ member of the Senate, has demonstrated an ability to win in a closely divided state -- she won reelection in 2018 by 11 points in a strong year for Democrats.
The Badger State will once again be a presidential battleground next year after Wisconsin voters narrowly backed Trump and Biden in 2016 and 2020, respectively. Baldwin has pushed for stronger "Buy America" policies in legislation such as the bipartisan infrastructure package enacted in 2021, which she'd be likely to tout on the campaign trail. She hasn't officially announced her reelection plans, but she started the year with more than $3 million in the bank.
One of the most prominent Republicans often mentioned as a challenger is Rep. Mike Gallagher, a Marine veteran first elected in 2016. There's an election in April for a state Supreme Court seat, which could affect the court's partisan makeup -- and potentially the state's congressional map. New district lines could push some GOP members of Wisconsin's House delegation to run for Senate.
7. Michigan
7. Michigan
Incumbent: Democrat Debbie Stabenow (retiring)
Four-term Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow's retirement opens up a seat in a battleground state that Biden carried by about 3 points in 2020. Democrats saw success here in 2022, and they're enthusiastic about their bench of potential Senate hopefuls -- especially Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a former CIA analyst and impressive fundraiser who just won a third term in one of the most expensive House races in the country.
The likelihood of a strong Democratic recruit running in the Wolverine State moves this contest slightly lower on the list of seats most likely to flip, even though an open seat would typically cost Democrats more money and be harder to defend. Possible Republican candidates include newly elected Rep. John James, who has lost two successive Senate races, and former Rep. Peter Meijer, who lost a 2022 primary. Meijer's 2021 vote to impeach Trump after the January 6 insurrection, however, could make it more challenging for him to win a GOP primary.
8. Pennsylvania
8. Pennsylvania
Incumbent: Democrat Bob Casey
Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is facing reelection in a state that Biden very narrowly carried in 2020. Since then, Democrats flipped an open Senate seat here, and Casey, a former state auditor general and treasurer, is much more of a known commodity than newly elected Democratic Sen. John Fetterman.
First elected to the Senate in 2006 and most recently reelected by 13 points in 2018, Casey comes from a politically influential family in the Keystone State. Unlike his father, a two-term governor and leader in the anti-abortion movement, the younger Casey typically votes in favor of abortion rights even if he opposes the procedure personally. He announced in January he'd been diagnosed with prostate cancer but has an "excellent prognosis."
Pennsylvania Republicans had a rough year in 2022, losing both the Senate and governor's races with Trump-backed nominees. Former hedge fund executive Dave McCormick — who tried to embrace Trump after moving back to the state but ultimately lost out on his endorsement and the 2022 Senate nomination — could be an attractive challenger for the GOP because of his personal wealth.
9. Florida
9. Florida
Incumbent: Republican Rick Scott
There is a sharp dropoff in competitiveness once you get past the top eight races on our list. Florida, once a perennial battleground state, has shifted toward Republicans in recent years. Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio both scored commanding reelection victories last year. Democrat Val Demings was a top-tier recruit who raised gobs of money and still lost to Rubio by 16 points.
That said, GOP Sen. Rick Scott, a former Florida governor who is seeking a second term next year, has a history of razor-thin general election wins. And as Biden did last week during his post-State of the Union stop in Tampa, Democrats are sure to seize on the agenda Scott proposed last year during his tenure as head of the NRSC, which he later revised after it sparked blowback from some Republicans, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.
But with Democrats defending so much turf this cycle, it's hard to see the party investing heavily in trying to flip a Senate seat in Florida during a presidential year, especially given the vast personal resources Scott can plow into his campaign. Among the names being floated as potential Democratic challengers is former Rep. Stephanie Murphy, a moderate who represented an Orlando-area district until earlier this year.
10. Texas
10. Texas
Incumbent: Republican Ted Cruz
In 2018, Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke generated national headlines and astronomical fundraising totals but still came up more than 2 points short against Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. While Cruz is seen as a potential 2024 presidential candidate, his focus for now appears to be on seeking a third term.
Beyond O'Rourke's narrow loss, Texas has shown signs of moving toward Democrats, with Trump winning the state by less than 6 points in 2020 -- the narrowest margin for the GOP since 1996. But Texas still a red state, as evidenced by Republican Gov. Greg Abbott's double-digit reelection victory over O'Rourke last fall.
Potential Democratic Senate contenders to watch here include former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro and Rep. Colin Allred.
Interactive: 2024 Senate map
Analysis: 2024 Senate map presents daunting challenge for Democrats
The 2024 Senate map presents a daunting challenge for Democrats. Time will tell if it proves to be insurmountable.
The party, which currently holds a narrow 51-49 majority, must defend 23 of the 34 seats up for grabs this cycle. That means Republicans need a net gain of just one or two seats to retake the Senate, depending on which party wins the White House in 2024.
The most favorable political terrain for Republicans runs through three states that former President Donald Trump carried by at least 8 points in 2020 -- West Virginia, Montana and Ohio. In all three, Democrats have incumbents with unique political brands who could again have crossover appeal with voters in a reelection race. And Republicans could face messy primary fights in all three states, leaving the eventual nominees weakened heading into the general election.
Beyond that, Democrats are defending Senate seats in a handful of pivotal presidential battlegrounds -- Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. All are expected to be fiercely contested, with Arizona offering the potential for an unpredictable three-way race if Democrat-turned-independent Kyrsten Sinema seeks reelection. Given the overlay of the presidential race, these contests are most likely to see outsize attention with high-profile campaign visits, making them more connected to the national crosscurrents.
If Democrats are searching for targets to offset potential losses, their options are limited. Florida and Texas -- both red-leaning states -- offer the best opportunities. While Florida Sen. Rick Scott has a history of razor-thin elections, he's won them all. The Sunshine State has also been trending toward Republicans in recent years, especially in the era of Trump and Ron DeSantis. In Texas, Sen. Ted Cruz withstood a tough challenge from Beto O'Rourke in 2018, a Democratic-friendly year. Defeating Cruz in a presidential year could pose an even greater test.
As the cycle gets underway, how these Senate races play out could depend on several factors. While all signs point to President Joe Biden seeking reelection, he has yet to formally announce his intentions. The 2024 GOP presidential field is only just starting to take shape, with Trump a clear front-runner for now.
Aside from the eventual nominees, the overall environment and mood of the country will also help shape contests up and down the ballot as well as the central campaign issues. The state of the US economy is a constant priority for voters. There are signs that culture issues, including parental rights, are poised to drive the debate within GOP primaries and could emerge as general election flashpoints.
Senate Republicans were unable to capitalize on what appeared to be a favorable midterm environment for them in 2022, in part because of flawed candidates, several of whom were elevated by Trump. Already this year, National Republican Senatorial Committee chair Steve Daines and other GOP leaders have sent signals that the committee could get involved in primaries if it means avoiding nominees who could cost the party in the general election.
